A Frequentist and a Bayesian go to a bar ...
(Note: you might want to refresh this page on your browser if the equations don't render correctly.) In the first installment of this blogpost , I illustrated that Fisher's rule of thumb of using for the upper limit of a 95% confidence/credible interval is a good approximation as soon a . This was inspired by a blogpost from John D. Cook on the subject. At the end I made a remark about something odd that happens when . Fisher's rule of thumb results in 1, which is not very informative. The Bionomial solution is 0.95. When this is now an actual Bernoulli, i.e. a special case of the binomial if you will: Yet, in the Bayesian analysis, the result is p=0.78. Why? First let's recalculate that number in an even simpler manual way than I showed in the first installment of this blogpost. We know that the distribution we're interested in is the Bernoulli distri...